090109 Forecasts and Defriending Links

On January 8, 2009, in All, Daily Links, JohnSumser.com, by John Sumser

Thought For The Day: “Hindsight is 50/50″

Recruiting Predictions for 2009
Wavy Davy Manaster (check out his picture) offers some predictions. Most of them reflect economic uncertainties. We’ll add
1) Explosion in the adoption of RPOs;
2) Price wars in the job boards;
3) Reductions in sourcers (the technique solves a shortage not a surplus);
4) Excitement about competency models;
5) Recruiting as a full member of the HR Team
6) More emphasis on workforce planning; and,
7) Hype about Total HR.
What’s Going to Be Different in 2009
Kevin Wheeler adds his $.02. I always cringe when someone expects growth in screening services. Screening is a fantastic thing when done well. So is marriage. About the same proportion succeed in both. Theory is one thing. People who favor screening forget the Milgram experiments.
Delete 10 Facebook friends, get a free Whopper
No kidding. Burger King has a great ad agency.
The Easiest Way to a First-Page Ranking on Google
A video with keywords, of course.
The Dangerous Trend Of Thinking That Ideas Can Be Owned, Sold Or Stolen
The idea is rarely the important part of anything.

About the author

John Sumser

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http://www.ere.net/ David Manaster

Wavy Davy? The picture was taken at JD’s house, which might explain it. I think that it would be interesting to see more detail on your predictions – especially #4.
http://www.recruitingroadshow.com johnrsumser

That JD is a corruptor of innocent youth.

In the enterprise markets, this year’s buzz is going to be “Total HR”. That’s what they are calling the integrated suite of services that contains everything (payroll, benefits, learning management, performance management, compensation, succession planning, sourcing, recruiting, and so on).

One key way to effectively integrate all the data is to make the foundation from competency models. That way, you can actually manage the value in the workforce. It’s possible to easily understand who will fit well in which arena when all jobs and employees are assessed using the same menu of behaviors and skills (competency models).

This year, because of all of the success in Total HR systems, competency modeling will really be getting a share of the spotlight. It’s a significant trend that will grow in importance over the next several years.

The other forecast that bears some attention is 5) Recruiting as a full member of the HR Team.

One of the most cherished myths in Recruiting is that it doesn’t really fit in HR because:
1. HR is reactive and Recruiting proactive.
2. The tension between customized service for hiring managers (Recruiting) and procedural standardization (Traditional HR) is structural.
3. HR is the cause of the problems that plague Recruiting.

That was probably true at the dawn of Electronic Recruiting. What’s happened in the interim is that Recruiters have been promoted to VP HR. The emphasis on Total HR is coming from customers who have roots in Recruiting.
http://www.careerxroads.com Gerry Crispin

If you mix up all our prognostications (I like the pompous sound of this word) from the last couple years and laid them side by I bet you couldn’t tell which prediction was for which year…or the next 5.

I only add that this will be the year we move from desktop and laptop computing to mobile computing. With the introduction of Blackberry storm to compete with iPhone and more on the way we move from a “phenomenon” to a “category” that offers true user friendly means to navigate these small devices. (The game changing feature is the “double tap” on the screen to zoom in – designed specifically for boomers who can no longer read 6 pt type.)
http://www.recruitingroadshow.com johnrsumser

Gerry, I think what you’ve identified is the way that technology percolates through our industry. The reason that all of our prognostifications (that’s a little less pompous) have a familiar ring is that we prognostificationalists (forecasters) are all early adopters. So, we get to see tools and techniques in advance of market acceptance. Our predictions are usually optimistic, highlight improvements in effectiveness and imply transformation.

Imagine a value buyer (very late adopter) as an imaginer of change. The visions would be of dollars saved, risks reduced and transformations avoided. Eyeore’s forecast…”looks like more rain”.

The tension between the two camps (and HR is a very conservative function) is significant. We prognostificatoralists live in a universe that has somewhat different problems than our late adopter bretheren. For example, my need for an integrated unified messaging system (because I have emails on a large number of social networks) is significant. I don’t think it’s a problem for most people yet. But it will be.

Our jobs involve pointing to the future until it becomes low risk enough to happen.