Five Scenarios for the Future of Recruiting 1

On January 14, 2010, in Five Scenarios, HRExaminer, Weekly, by John Sumser

five-scenarios-for-the-future-of-recruiting-hrexaminerFive Scenarios for the Future of Recruiting 1

It’s an interesting time to ponder the future of recruiting. You can imagine Chicken Little running around crying “The sky is falling. The sky is falling.”

  • The profession is 30% to 50% smaller than it was 18 months ago.
  • Many more HR Generalists are filling the recruiting role.
  • Technology is changing rapidly.
  • A new generation is coming to work.
  • Sourcing is simultaneously separating from the selection process and transforming itself.
  • Meanwhile, good enough sourcing is on everyone’s desktop. It just keeps getting better.
  • Social Recruiting is grabbing a foothold.
  • Salary transparency makes candidates smarter about the deal.
  • Workplace reviews create brand management problems.
  • The effective unemployment rate of 18% creates a candidate deluge.
  • Budgets are trimmed to the bone.
  • The publishing industry, which once provided the infrastructure for employment advertising is dead.
  • Other industries are in peril creating a sea of displaced, disrupted workers.
  • Old ideas of privacy are under assault.
  • Economic forecasts are impossible to believe (your company’s or the government’s)
  • Employment branding is gaining traction in health-care markets.

At the same time, transformative things are afoot in some recruiting departments. There are stories of large companies who let their internal recruiters raid departments just like external recruiters do. RPOs leverage needs across clients to build serious market clout in specific niches.

So, how do you plan for a future in an environment like this?

Between now and the ERE Spring Expo, I will be developing Five Scenarios for the Future of Recruiting. In ambiguous times, precise forecasts about the future are worse than useless. Explicit predictions create frameworks for bad judgment.

Scenario Planning, a technique developed by Shell in the 1980s, is a useful way to think about the future without getting fixed on specific outcomes. One objective of scenario planning is the discovery of novel insight about the future.

Over the coming weeks, in preparation for the ERE Expo, I’ll be developing a series of (you guessed it) Five Scenarios for the Future of Recruiting. The research, which is sponsored, will produce tools for conversation about the future rather than specific forecasts.

The series of articles will cover:

  • Scenarios, Conversations, Research (This Piece)
  • Key Trends
  • Map of the Marketplace
  • Scenario 1:
  • Scenario 2:
  • Scenario 3:
  • Scenario 4:
  • Scenario 5:
  • Expectations for the Conversation at ERE.

At the ERE Expo, I am going to give a presentation that will just cover enough of the basics to get a conversation started. Being prepared will mean having read the series of articles in advance of the conversation. I imagine a vigorous exchange among interested parties. I’ve scheduled my return to the Bay Area for the following day in order to support a dialog that runs past the convention’s time limits.

About a month after the conversation at ERE is completed, we’ll be delivering a White Paper that documents the process and the impact of the online dialog. Anyone who participates online will receive a copy of the White Paper when it is published.

This is going to be an interesting experiment. I hope you’ll join me.

John Sumser is the Founder and Editor of the recently launched HRExaminer. A well known industry analyst, Sumser is also the CEO of Two Color Hat, a media and HR Marketing Consultancy.

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About the author

John Sumser

John Sumser is the founder, principal author and editor-in-chief of the HRExaminer Online Magazine. John explores the people, technology, ideas and careers of senior leaders in Human Resources and Human Capital. John is the also principal of Two Color Hat where he routinely advises Human Resources, Recruiting Departments and Talent Management teams with product analysis, market segmentation, positioning, strategy and branding guidance.

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  • http://www.SkrentnySPEAKS.com/ Jeff Skrentny CERS

    Excellent experiment!

    Couple of thoughts/questions:

    The profession is 30% to 50% smaller than it was 18 months ago…is this going to rebound up as it has after past economic downturns or do you think it may be permanent this time?

    Many more HR Generalists are filling the recruiting role…is this where some of the above will end up?

    Sourcing is simultaneously separating from the selection process and transforming itself…it this the KEY new skill for recruiting for 3rd party and Corporate HR? Is this function also taking some of those missing from the traditional recruiting functions?

    How else can we participate?

    Looking forward to learning more.

  • http://twitter.com/JohnSumser John Sumser

    The interesting thing that I saw is a very large company that allows its recruiters to act like third party players for internal mobility. That means no asking of permission from the department head before recruiting ahigh potential player into a new job.

    This is not more of the same old ‘teach recruiters to act like headhunters’ in outside matters. It’s leveling the playng field in the market for internal candidates.

    It’s an exercise in demonstrating that employees work for the company, not the department. It creates an internal talent market that is open and competitive. Internal recruiters are not used as a buffer against competition.

    I think it’s a remarkable idea and I haven’t heard of anyone doing anything like it. The concept turns succession planning, job rotation, and other standard HR functions on thier head.

    Recruiting will transform itself with ideas like this.

  • http://twitter.com/JohnSumser John Sumser

    Thanks for the great questions, Jeff.

    The interesting thing about scenario planning is the way it sidesteps detailed predictions. A good scenario forces you to think way outside of the box.

    The questions you raise probably play out differently in different market segments.

    The challenging thing about forecasting the future of Recruiting and HR is that they aren't really professions that use standard practices. They are craft like and, in my opinion, segmented by regional culture and industry requirements.

    That said, both Recruiting and HR tend (with the single exception of commission based recruiting) to measure (and focus on) process rather than results.

    Sourcing is like that. With no direct tie into a business result, sourcing is all about producing lots of stuff in hope that some of it works. Notice how little attention is paid to 'sourcing effectiveness'. That suggests that the fat (sourcing results that don't produce hires) is a likely target for further cost-cutting.

    If the leaders of the sourcing profession are smart, they will figure out how to take on some of the missing pieces, just as you suggest. Being able to apply cultural evaluation to candidates in advance of the selection process would allow sorcers to estimate the likelihood of a good fit in accountable ways. That has direct applicability to onboarding. Sourcing can also be the host for Employment Branding.

    Did you have other areas in mind?

  • http://www.SkrentnySPEAKS.com/ Jeff Skrentny, CERS

    John,

    “The interesting thing that I saw is a very large company that allows its recruiters to act like third party players for internal mobility. That means no asking of permission from the department head before recruiting ahigh potential player into a new job.

    This is not more of the same old ‘teach recruiters to act like headhunters’ in outside matters. It’s leveling the playng field in the market for internal candidates.”

    As I read this from your first reply above, I thought to myself, if more organizations did this, THAT truly would be a competitive threat to 3rd Party Recruiters like myself.

    Then, after that initial reaction, because let’s face it, I am a third party recruiter and like the work I do, it occurs to me, that if internal HR / recruiting departments would do this as the rule, and not the exception, frankly, I could do my work as a TPR (third party recruiter) BETTER, because I would know that the internal search had already been done, that the candidates I placed would have these opportunities for themselves, and that the organization would be a better place to work (and thus recruit for) because thinking like this would have to optimize organizational achievement and success.

  • http://www.SkrentnySPEAKS.com/ Jeff Skrentny,, CERS

    “Sourcing is like that. With no direct tie into a business result, sourcing is all about producing lots of stuff in hope that some of it works. Notice how little attention is paid to ‘sourcing effectiveness’. That suggests that the fat (sourcing results that don’t produce hires) is a likely target for further cost-cutting.

    If the leaders of the sourcing profession are smart, they will figure out how to take on some of the missing pieces, just as you suggest. Being able to apply cultural evaluation to candidates in advance of the selection process would allow sorcers to estimate the likelihood of a good fit in accountable ways. That has direct applicability to onboarding. Sourcing can also be the host for Employment Branding.”

    Based on what I am seeing in the TPR space, the TPRs who are “buying” these services or tools are already asking for these metrics. Everything we do in TPR is about results, and if sourcing services tools are going to expect to be taken seriously they will need to offer metrics of success/results. Names aren’t good enough, names that I can seriously put into play and get hired with my clients/prospects is what I need.

    I have long told owners managers of recruiting shops that they need to know not just where their candidates come from, but know where the candidates they PLACED came from. If they buy sourcing services / tools, and don’t find results coming from this “new,” and I believe important, functional area of recruiting that has become it’s own special skill set, then what is the value? ROI baby, a list of names that I don’t place, or don’t even consider engaging in my search process is a waste of my time and money.

    Need to loop Shally in on this thread, as I would love to know how he would comment.

  • http://shally.myopenid.com/ Shally

    Sourcing will take many forms as it has in the past so yes, I agree with you. I believe that the more information is out there the more critical “identification” becomes. However, there are so many data sources and tools already with more being invented daily that there will be a variety of different role definitions for what we now call “sourcing.”

    Bottom line, I think the role will evolve to include all that is talent identification, recruitment marketing, initial outreach, and use of emerging technologies. Interestingly this relates very well with my guest post on CruterTalk earlier this month check it out: http://bit.ly/4puHXQ

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