Table of Contents
Five Recruiting Scenarios 4: The Future Matters
Recruiting and HR will not evolve independently of global events and pressures. Geo-political issues, energy, global warming, rapid industrialization, demographics, immigration and the constant invention of new jobs and disciplines will always drive the day to day realities of Recruiting and HR.
A key driver of the evolution of Recruiting and HR is the amount of growth in the economy and in a specific business. Recruiting for new roles is significantly different than recruiting to replace. The more clearly a role is understood and documented, the more the market behaves in competitive fashion. Once the new role is completely commoditized, it’s easy to talk about job descriptions, resume analysis and community development. As long as the role represents growth and innovation, it is hard to characterize and recruiting involves more intuition.
Status also makes a difference. Methods and processes used for recruiting and HR vary on two dimensions: level of compensation and the degree to which the job involves intellect. When compensation is low and involves brute force, the issues revolve around safety and reliability. When the questions involve enormous fees and lots of conceptualization (and notably, few real safety issues) the game is very, very different.
The following brief scenarios will give you some idea of the way that Talent Acquisition and Management could evolve given a shifting landscape:
- A: Oil Prices Move to $200/barrel A Year From NowGlobalization, food prices and the way we all get to work all share one common underpinning. Each relies on the continued availability of cheap energy. At $200/barrel, the economics of the later 20th Century change dramatically. In the first years of the transition, things that once were disposable (electronics, for example) become extremely expensive. The ability to ‘leverage ‘ wages in other parts of the world depends on the ability to transport finished goods at inexpensive rates.Spiraling ever higher, energy prices bring changes to local economies. Television repair men become vogue. The maintenance of now expensive luxury objects becomes the fastest growing vocation.The automotive industry collapses (even further) displacing millions in the supply chain. Food prices skyrocket.As work returns to the mother ship from outsourced destinations, a huge imbalance between available and needed skills develops. Recruiting grows in size and complexity as companies rush to train workers to do tasks that once were completed in other countries. Interestingly, the need for immigrant labor grows treendously as does the requirement for training of those guest workers. This is a future in which ‘competency management’ is in the ascendant, where recruiters can translate a resume into the necessary competencies and make a decision. Education, credentialling and structure become essential elements of an employee portfolio.(If you’re intersted in learning more about this possibility, Read “Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and The End of Globalization and watch this video)
- B: The Downturn Is Followed By Sustained GrowthThere are plenty of good reasons to believe that conventional wisdom (the recession marks a permanent lowering of expectations) is off base. Global econmic growth has persisted over a very long time period.
The United States has a tendency to take a dour look at its prospects. The Geopolitical reality is otherwise.
In a world of continued growth, population issues take the front seat. All of the Western industrialized countries will be competing for the hearts and minds of immigrants. While the United States has an advantage, other players are already beginning to compete and will be better at it. Government subsidies for guest workers will be common.
Recruiting, in this scenario, is focused on the complex process of finding the right people to work in and lead new endeavors. Skills and predispositions are the central facets of Recruiting in this future. Workers agressively exploit their leverage in relationships with multiple employers.
In the future with enduring economic growth, Global warming is mitigated by the slowing rise of population while the energy shortage is solved by a range of innovations including the wireless broadcast of energy.
(If you want to know more about this scenario, read The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century and watch this video Part 1 and Part 2)
- C: More of The Same: Growth Slows to a Permanent CrawlThis is the Eeyore scenario.As happened in Japan, investment moves away from aging population centers and towards youthful countries. In essence, the flow of capital moves towards the southern hemisphere. The North is left to deal with aging and the associated health problems. Auto aftermarkets shift from a technological focus to seat padding and comfort. Attempts to build economic momentum seem sabotaged by a series of natural and unnatural disasters.Housing sits vacant even as prices fall through the floor. With no growth and no means to attract immigration, the housing stock is 30% too large. As tax revenues continue to fall, the stress between regions results in a crumbling of large national identity in favor of small regions.Young professionals learn to hang on to a job which is the only meaningful asset. The corporate attrition problems goes from “too much” to “not enough”. Recruiting becomes exclusively about filling empty slots while corporate mobility and development are in the ascendant.(If you want to learn more about this scenario, read the paper and watch the network news)
In the next four articles, we’re going to concentrate on the evolution of Recruiting and it’s impact on the market segments we identified last week.
What should be clear from this short example is that the future of Recruiting and HR are extremely dependent on the way that the world evolves.
This research is sponsred by Pinstripe Talent.
To read the rest of the series:
Reviews: The Future
The research for the Five Scenarios project is sponsored by Pinstripe Talent. (We could still use an additional sponsor, please check in with me). As a part of the project, I’ve been digging into lots of ideas about the coming years.
Right now, there are a number of interesting books that lay out a range of stories about how our future will unfold. I’ve plowed through about a dozen of them as a foundation for the Five Scenarios Series. So far, the most interesting come from very diverse grounding, politics and vision.
Jeff Rubin is a Canadian economist who predicted soaring oil prices back in 2000. His book, Why Your World Is About to Get A Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization describes a near term future in which a barrel of oil goes for $200. In his view, soaring energy costs dismantle the global economy and send us back to local, simpler circumstances.
“We must reengineer our lives to adapt to a world of increasing energy scarcity. And that means learning to live using less energy. While much could go wrong in that transition, don’t be surprised if we find more than a few silver linings. And don’t be surprised if the newer smaller world that emerges isn’t a whole lot more livable and enjoyable than the one we are about to leave behind”
Rubin, echoing the slow food, local movement, idealizes our rustic past and sees little choice but to adapt to the harsh reality that the last centuries have been subsidized by cheap energy. He imagines a future with more repair persons and fewer foreign goods. Expensive food and hitch hiking dot the landscape of our coming years.
Stewart Brand, who co-founded the Global Business Network (where scenario planning was perfected) with the Shell team that forecast the last oil price disruption, sees a happier (somewhat warmer) future in Whole Earth Discipline: An Eco Pragmatist Manifesto. Brand, who is sort of the god father of all hippiedom, sees a future of mini-nukes, urban innovations, climate management and genetic engineering of the food supply. It’s somewhat odd that the former advocate of Rubin’s view is now suggesting a back to the city future.
But, Brand has a nearly magical ability to sense the shifting winds of pop culture and therefore the future we are experiencing. For Brand, the leveling of population growth (something this audience has understood for decades) is the trump card in the global warming debate. He trusts the human desire to have a better life as the engine of innovation for the coming century.
While Whole Earth Discipline is really a guide for long term thinking, Brand dots his vision of the future with an amazing array of anecdotes from the scientists who are shaping that future.Of the three works, Whole Earth is the one that respects it’s reader’s ability to think.
If Brand represents the fringe middle, Rubin has the left covered. George Friedman‘s book comes complete with Lou Dobbs’ quotes. Tackling the pure geopolitical view, Friedman dissects history like he was slicing cheese. A smooth and compelling narrative have you swallowing his non-annotated analysis like it was fruit juice.
To Friedman, we are at the very beginning of the American Era. Pooh poohing America’s tendency to see a dismal future, he disassembles the current china bashing with a geographical analysis (China is incapable of deploying an adequate Navy). Like Brand, although more assertively, he sees the population slowdown as the cure for warming.
The book rips through a future that includes another war between Japan and the US, Mexico as a prominent superpower, the importance of encouraging immigration and Turkey as the upcoming leader of the Islamic States. Poland will become the center of Eastern Europe.
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, Friedman’s book ignores stated political views and conventional wisdom to paint a picture of a world driven by long historical trend. Essentially, he says that what matters are historic variables generated by geography.
Taken together, the three books provide an interesting a blanched set of opinions on the issues that matter over the next 100 years.
Now, ask yourself, when was the last time anyone in HR or Recruiting talked about the next 100 years.
Our sponsor Pinstripe, Inc. designs, builds and delivers high-performance talent acquisition and management solutions. Pinstripe’s innovative approach to Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO) integrates sourcing, recruiting, hiring, on-boarding, and engagement into a complete, end-to-end solution. Pinstripe on-demand hiring solutions are tailored for specific clients across a spectrum of industries including financial services, healthcare, technology, telecommunications and other major industries. For healthcare organizations, Pinstripe Healthcare works with clients to attract the best available talent so they can deliver high quality patient care and reduce overall labor costs.
On the Go v2.05
Watching Executive moves for career clues (Linked In profiles if available)
- Holy Rosary Credit Union promoted Chris Patrowicz to Vice President of Human Resources.Starting her career with HRCU in May 2001, Chris joined the Credit Union as the Director of Human Resources. In this position she managed the daily operations and functions of Human Resources. In 2004, Chris was promoted to Assistant Vice President of Human Resources.Chris is a graduate of Babson College in Financial Studies and Northeastern University where she is “certified” in Human Resources and Employment Law.
- Armed with a degree in Industrial Relations from Rutgers’ University, Sharon R Daley spent 27 years across several divisions of GE, and has seen and digested management styles first-hand of the iconic Jack Welch and others . The Vice President-HR of GE Energyalso once famously passed up a promotion to spend time with her kids in an organisation where stepping off the track was akin to the kiss of death.
- American International Group promoted Jeff Hurd, who had been chief administrative officer, to head of human resources. It also hired Michael R. Cowan from Merrill Lynch to fill the chief administrative role.
- Choice Hotels International promoted Anne Hendrick to vice president of human resources and administration for the worldwide lodging company. Hendrick will report to Patrick Cimerola, senior vice president of human resources and administration. Hendrick, who has served as Choice’s director of human resources since 2003, will be responsible for all domestic human resources operations, talent acquisition and management, administrative services and policy administration for the company. Prior to joining Choice in 2003 in her previous role, Hendrick held a variety of positions during her 21-year career. Her previous positions included 9 years with HCR Manor Care and 7 years with Marriott.
- Goodwill Industries of Greater Detroit named Karen Sanford director of human resources and organizational development. Sanford oversees human resources and employee and organizational development. She was human resources manager for Ford Motor Credit.
- A provider of technology for the travel and tourism industry has recruited an experienced human resources professional from Citigroup. Sabine Hansen Peck was the banking group’s former Head of Human Resources, Europe, Middle East & Africa for the Global Consumer Group. Peck has over 17 years experience managing large HR functions and multi-cultural teams. Peck has been appointed as Vice President, Human Resources for Amadeus and will be responsible for group HR worldwide. Amadeus have a global workforce of over 8,900 employees. Luis Marato, Deputy CEO, Amadeus, believes that the appointment of Peck clearly demonstrates that the firm’s ability to: “attract the best professional talents”.
- International Consolidated Companies appointed Daniel W. Swinehart, CPA, to the position of Vice President Acquisitions and Integration. “Daniel’s expertise is critical to identifying beneficial acquisition opportunities for INCC that will allow us to grow our offerings and capabilities,” stated Antonio F. Uccello, III, President and CEO. Swinehart is a Certified Public Accountant with experience in International Financial Reporting, Mergers & Acquisitions and Strategic Planning. Prior to joining INCC he served as Vice President of Finance and Human Resources for Pendo Systems, Inc., where he drove finance, human resources and corporate administration for domestic and international operations. From 2003 to 2008 he was Chief Administration Officer for Upstream (which in 2003 acquired Rosenbluth International, where he worked as Director of Finance and Controller since 1999) managing all global corporate finance, human resources and administrative functions.
- Trinket, the San Leandro provider of payroll, benefits and human resources outsourcing services to small businesses appointed Carlos Galarce chief operating officer. Recently, he was a managing partner at Santiago Partners.
In The Know V 1.05: Links to make you think
- How to create great work environments
Great environments encourage people to make mistakes and learn from them.
Here are the four arenas that matter:
1. The person in power defines the culture through their behavior
2. Everyone must understand the different kinds of mistakes
3. The person in power has to care about employees long term
4. Everyone has to properly set expectations
- How To Destroy a Lifetime of Trust as an HR Pro in a Single Day…
Kris Dunn, the prolific fellow who is singlehandedly redefining smart HT, tells a story about the time he got the phone call. A lesser member of the HR team used her knowledge of salary data to create leverage for a raise. AND, she wanted to be paid on par with engineers and operations folks. According to Kris (and most everyone else), HR isn’t on par with those functions. The lesson he draws from the story is about trust and confidentiality. I wonder if there isn’t a story here about why HR doesn’t merit equal status in the organization and what to do about it.
- Get Real About Generation X Stereotypes
Is the real root of GenX disparagement the fact that they are Republicans? An interesting look at the differences between four generations on social and political issues.
- The People Who Actually Use The Technology
Steve Boese is one of the great voices to emerge in the rise of HR Social Media. In this piece, he patiently explains that all of the people who are dissing the iPad are like art critics: Good on opinions, less interesting in practice. The iPad, in Steve’s view, is destined for the masses, not the elite.
- The 8 Elements of Contagious Ideas
Dan Zarella is the only real social media expert. That’s because he measures EVERYTHING. This article specifies the eight things you need to manage to create ideas that spread (like you hope your next initiative will) Social media is becoming a laboratory for the communications skills that make or break careers.
Top 100 Influencers v1.55 John Hollon
When John Hollon gets on the phone, you get hit with a huge wave of enthusiasm and insight. With 32 years of journalism under his belt, Hollon is a principled and opinionated influencer. As the editor of Workforce Magazine for the past six years, Hollon shapes and encourages the HR Industry.
Of course, professional journalists tend to have very interesting online profiles. Here’s how he describes himself on LinkedIn:
I am a highly successful and experienced leader and manager, in that order. I am also a highly accomplished writer and editor, with deep experience online and in print.
I’m also a workforce management expert, mainly because of my deep management experience, and, because I have seen so much management done so badly, to so many, for so long. That’s the theme of my award winning Workforce Management column, The Last Word, and, my award-winning workforce.com blog, The Business of Management.
My approach is thoughtful, experienced-based and pragmatic. You won’t see me embrace the latest flavor-of-the-month management practices espoused by so many current bloggers and writers who are full of provocative opinions but terribly light on evidence or experience to back them up. My expertise comes from years of successes I celebrated, failures I learned from, and simple hard work.
My deep expertise flows from a lifetime of experience managing people in groups from large to small. Want my philosophy? It’s this — I believe in the power of people working together to make something greater than they could ever build on their own. And, I believe in the power of smart and focused management to help lead them in the quest to do it.
Hollon’s reach is pretty impressive. Workforce Magazine (the print edition) has 52,000 subscribers. The email and web properties reach about 400,000 readers. With a predictable flow of 100,000 web visitors per month (excluding email), Workforce is easily the second most trafficked site in the industry.
He’s one of the primary arbiters of the idea flow in the HR Industry.
In our conversation, it became apparent that Hollon is much more than a professional journalist. As an active participant in the evolution from print to web, he has a host of hard won insights into the cultural transition both within and without the HR profession. His primary concern, from a business perspective, is trying to figure out how to educate a generation of consumers used to ‘free’ media that it’s not really free at all.
At the same time, he is strongly concerned about the ‘loss of the watchdog function’ once performed by broadcast media. He’s watching the evolution of non-profit (journalism subsidized by philanthropy) experiments. He frets that without this critical function, transparency s a pipe dream.
I was introduced to John by Kris Dunn who freely credits Hollon for his rise from obscurity. When I ask Hollon about his favorite accomplishments, he quickly says “being able to shine the light on lesser known talent”. It’s something he does regularly.
The state of Blogging in HR would be vastly different if Hollon wasn’t constantly experimenting with new media. Fistful of Talent, the amazing group blog founded by Dunn and edited by Jessica Lee gained its momentum from Hollon’s support and sponsorship. With the Workforce Magazine promotional engine driving publicity, its no surprise that FOT is a traffic powerhouse.
Somewhat surprisingly, Hollon seems most proud of his work as an Adjunct Professor of Communications at Cal State Fullerton. He teaches the art of opinion writing and is ecstatic about what he learns from his students. In spite of an enormous pile of awards and a huge volume of self confidence, John Hollon is happy to continue to introduce new people and new ideas to the HR Marketplace.